Marlins or Cardinals? (Pitching)

The Marlins have the better team ERA, but play in a little more of a neutral park. So here is a breakdown of how the staffs fare head to head:

Starter #1

Cardinals - Hector Baez

Marlins - Ramon Suh

Advantage - Marlins

Suh is probably the leading NL Cy Young candidate thus far, compiling a 15-2 record with an ERA hovering around 2.00. Baez however, has been a bit of a disappointment since his arrival from Montreal a couple weeks back. He is 3-1 in 6 starts with St. Louis, but a 4.58 ERA is lackluster compared to his expected returns.

Starter #2

Cardinals - Julio Escobar

Marlins - Willie Otanez

Advantage - Push

Escobar still needs to prove he can stay healthy...but despite only appearing in 12 games (all starts) he has been extremely impressive, posting an 8-1 mark with a 2.33 ERA. Otanez, on the other hand, hasn't been quite as dominant, but has started 22 games and has a 13-4 record with an ERA of just 3.10. If Escobar was healthy all season, and kept up the same marks, this would go to the Redbirds.

Starter #3

Cardinals - Ben Sparks

Marlins - Jamie Jacobs

Advantage - Marlins

Sparks has pitched over his head his entire career, and this season is no exception. Ratings wise, this looks like it should be no contest, but Sparks has now pitched 6 1/2 seasons of great baseball despite less than exceptional ratings. Jacobs, however, is arguably the best pitcher in Hot Stove history. Since coming to Florida from Montreal a couple weeks back, he has posted a 5-1 record, including an impressive 5-hit shutout this afternoon. Down the stretch, this matchup definitely belongs to the veteran with 117 career wins, although Sparks will definitely put up one scrappy fight.

Starter #4

Cardinals - Alex Saenez

Marlins - Al Watson

Advantage - Cardinals

Watson is enjoying a career year, with 15 wins already, and an ERA of only 3.14, but Saenez is up there with Jacobs as one of the most dominating pitchers in league history. Elbow inflamation has kept Saenez down a bit, but an 11-2 record and a 3.06 ERA are still quite impressive in 21 starts. Expect Saenez to get on a roll as the season progresses, and Watson to somewhat return back to Earth.

Starter #5

Cardinals - Carlos Gurrido

Marlins - Todd Black

Advantage - Marlins

How Gurrido has an ERA under 4 is beyond me. Like Ben Sparks, (but even more impressive) Gurrido defies the ratings idea and continues to impress with a 10-4 record and a 3.83 ERA. This is not expected to keep up all season, as a couple of bad outings could quickly jettison him out of the Cards rotation in favor of DaRond Priest (currently SP#6). And although Black has only started 3 games for the Fish, he is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA, and combined with his earlier work in Baltimore, the rook stands at 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA in only 18 starts.


Middle Relief

Advantage - Marlins

Rusty Tabaka, Murray Keeler and Kevin Goodwin lead a middle relief corps with an ERA right around 3.00. Charles Freeman and Ron Becker post some good numbers, but guys like Julio Pizzaro really hold the club down from the level Florida's relievers.

Closer

Advantage - Cardinals

How the mighty have fallen!! After winning a ROY and 2 straight fireman awards in the last 3 seasons, Paul Cho has fallen off the face of the earth, posting a 6.69 ERA, giving up 30 runs in only 40 innings. Remember, this is a Closer with a career ERA under 2.50 going into the season, only blowing 10 saves in 3 stellar seasons. Meanwhile, Julian Valdes is quietly posting an ERA of 3.33 with 20 saves in 24 chances. Not amazing, but definitely light years better than Cho's atrocity of a season. If this keeps up, Kevin Goodwin might be seing save chances in the near future.


That's 4-2-1 Marlins, but just like the standings, it's alot closer than it looks on paper.